If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]

Prediction market on manifold. WARNING: Unlike most conditional markets, I will not necessarily cancel this market when the deadline hits. If at the end of the century China has substantially the same policy toward Taiwan (i.e. that annexation would be in principle good), I will assume that the chinese leadership assessed their prospects, decided such an invasion would fail, and chose not to go through with it. I will therefore resolve NO. Here's a similar market without that clause: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/if-china-invades-taiwan-will-they-s. I created this market when my search didn't turn up Isaac's, but when I noticed the difference in approaches, decided to leave this one up as an experiment. Feel free to fill my limit order over there.

24h Volume: $6.076. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/1/2100.