What will be the outcome of the 2026 New Zealand General Election?

Prediction market on manifold. Resolves to the first government formation after the next New Zealand election (if it's postponed beyond 2026, resolves to the next election after that). "Other" might include a grand coalition containing both National and Labour, or a government of small parties without either major party. Labour/National need not be the largest party in their coalition for their respective options to resolve, and they may govern alone. "No government formed" means that a new election happens without a non-caretaker government being formed. Update 2026-01-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Coalition governments include: Minority governments Governments supported by confidence and supply arrangements Any arrangement where a party or parties form the government, regardless of whether they hold a majority

24h Volume: $3,000. Liquidity: $10,000. Resolves: 10/16/2026.