Correspondents Association dinner incident prop bets

Prediction market on manifold. A security incident occurred at the White House Correspondents Association dinner. See, e.g., https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04/25/us/trump-correspondents-dinner-shooting Add your own props; I'll do my best to judge them. Market close in one month, but individual answers will close early if there is a consensus of credible reporting. Because some answers may be subjective, I will not trade on this market. Update 2026-04-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Shooter" is defined as a person who fired a shot. This answer resolves YES only if everyone who fired a shot in the incident is identified or caught within 24 hours — not just accomplices who did not fire. Update 2026-04-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Someone was hit by a bullet" resolves YES for any firearm projectile, including birdshot, slugs, pellets, and other unconventional projectiles (e.g., homemade blunderbuss). Update 2026-04-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Security personnel who fired shots do not count as 'invited guests' for the purposes of this answer, even if they were present at the event. Update 2026-04-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will resolve objective answers this afternoon (EDT) based on published timelines in the press. Intent-related questions will not be resolved today, as there is no consensus reporting on the shooter's mental state. Update 2026-04-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the definition of "shooter" in these answers: Even if it turns out that Allen (the suspect) did not fire any shots and all shooting was done by security personnel, Allen will still be treated as the "shooter" for resolution purposes. This is to maintain consistency with already-resolved answers, media reports used for resolution, and the likely intent of proposition authors.

24h Volume: $450. Liquidity: $4,000. Resolves: 5/27/2026.