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Prediction market on manifold. Resolution criteria This market resolves to "YES" if a major, reputable scientific publication (e.g., Nature, Science, Cell) or a widely recognized mainstream news outlet (e.g., Reuters, The New York Times, Associated Press) reports that a biotechnology development has achieved performance benchmarks, functional capabilities, or cognitive processing power widely accepted by the scientific community as directly rivaling the capabilities of advanced artificial intelligence (such as large language models or autonomous computational systems). The technology must be explicitly described as "rivaling AI" or providing functional equivalents to AI capabilities within a biological or synthetic biological medium. Additionally, a technology that is functionally distinct from AI but rivals it in terms of importance may be considered based on social and scientific impact. Background The intersection of biotechnology and artificial intelligence is an emerging field, often referred to as "wetware" or biological computing. Researchers are exploring the use of synthetic neural networks, brain-organoid computing, and DNA-based data storage to perform computational tasks. While current efforts focus on biological systems performing specific data processing or learning tasks, the definition of "rivaling AI" is subjective and currently lacks a standardized industry benchmark. Traders should consider that major breakthroughs in this field may be subject to peer review delays and intense public debate regarding the definition of computational intelligence.
24h Volume: $129.652. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/1/2101.