Will Benjamin Netanyahu still be Prime Minister at the end of 2026?

Prediction market on manifold. Resolution criteria Netanyahu is Prime Minister of Israel since 2022. This market resolves YES if Netanyahu holds the office of Prime Minister on December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC. It resolves NO if he does not hold the office at that time. Resolution will be determined by checking official Israeli government sources or major international news outlets confirming his status as Prime Minister on that date. Background Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel by 27 October 2026. If the budget is not passed by the late March 2026 deadline, early elections will be called. Netanyahu announced he intends to run for re-election in the 2026 legislative elections. Likud remains the largest party with 26 seats, but Netanyahu's coalition does not have the majority necessary to form a government. Polls show no realistic scenario in which Netanyahu can assemble another majority coalition. However, with only fifty-one seats it may be able to block any alternative coalition from forming because Arab parties are unlikely to take part in a successor government. Considerations Netanyahu was officially indicted for breach of trust, accepting bribes, and fraud. Netanyahu's trial is expected to conclude in the first half of 2026, with additional months required for judges to draft a verdict, pushing the process into 2027. Netanyahu formally asked president Isaac Herzog for a pardon regarding his trial, though it is unlikely Herzog will grant Netanyahu a clean pardon without imposing some restrictions. Netanyahu has instructed his inner circle to prepare for the possibility that the Knesset could dissolve early if the coalition fails to pass the draft law or the state budget, creating uncertainty about whether elections occur on schedule or earlier. This description was generated by AI.

24h Volume: $50. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2026.