Will there be a food shortage related to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz?

Prediction market on manifold. https://kfgo.com/2026/03/05/fertilizer-institute-monitoring-strait-of-hormuz-situation-for-supply-disruptions/ https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/1394673-strait-of-hormuz-turmoil-gulf-shipping-crisis-raises-fears-of-global-food-price-shock In the global economy, the Strait of Hormuz which lies between Iran and Oman holds a significant importance as two-fifths of oil and between a quarter and a third of the global trade in the raw materials for fertiliser passes through this strategically important chokepoint. ... As a result of conflict-driven shortage would not only jeopardize food security but also cause an alarming uptick in global food prices, such as pasta, bread and potatoes. ... The shortage in the fertilizer supply chain will exacerbate the plight of farmers in Europe, the UK, and North America, who have just started to plant spring crops.  Will there be a food shortage in 2026 related to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz? Resolves YES if there is reporting in major news media sources that there is a food shortage affecting any region of the world, which is attributed to the Iran War or the Strait of Hormuz closure. Resolves NO if this has not happened by the end of 2026.

24h Volume: $59.259. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2026.