When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users?

Prediction market on manifold. Definition of "AI-rendered video game" To qualify, a video game must have its graphics rendered by AI in real time. An AI should be rendering graphics at least 50% of the time in an average playthrough. When the AI is rendering graphics, it should generate at least one image per second. The images should generally depend on the very recent actions of the player - for instance, the player character immediately starts moving left when you press the left button. It's okay if certain parts of the game are not AI-rendered, like UI elements. However, it doesn't count if the AI is just starting with e.g. a 3D mesh rendering and postprocessing it to make it prettier or fill in frames. It has to generate the video more-or-less from scratch. Specifically, I'd look for a system that generates visual elements like characters and scenery during gameplay and simulates their motion, doing this entirely through ML rather than programmatically, similar to Oasis. It's okay if the AI starts with a premade textual or visual prompt, but has to be able to generate and animate new visual elements. Definition of "1 million paid users" This market resolves based on 1 million people having paid a subscription or one-time payment for an AI-rendered video game. The number of paying users at any one time is not important - rather, I will be using the number of distinct users who have ever paid for a game. If it's unclear how many paid users a game has, I will lean towards waiting to resolve the market until more information is available. I might try to contact the company selling the game to ask them whether the market should be resolved. It may eventually be obvious that at least 1 million people have paid for an AI-rendered game, even if there are no official numbers from the company; in this case, I will resolve the market. There may be multiple AI-rendered video games. If this is the case, I will use the number of users who have paid for any of these games, while trying not to double-count any users who have paid for multiple games. This may require some common-sense judgement of how many duplicate users there are, but I will only resolve the market if the answer is pretty obvious. Other details A year resolves to YES if at any time during that year, or any time before that year, there are 1 million total paid users of AI-rendered video games. If the year ends before this happens, it resolves to NO. I will not bet in this market.

24h Volume: $33.396. Liquidity: $10,000. Resolves: 1/1/2031.