Who will win the NY-12 Congressional District (add answers!)

Prediction market on manifold. Will resolve whoever wins NY-12 according to reputable news sources. Resolution criteria Resolves to the certified winner of the 2026 U.S. House general election for New York’s 12th Congressional District (NY‑12). The named person’s answer resolves YES if NYS Board of Elections certifies them as the winner; all other answers resolve NO upon certification. Write‑ins count if certified; party line(s) under New York’s fusion voting are irrelevant. Special elections before November 3, 2026 do not count. If litigation delays certification, resolve to the final court‑ordered/NYSBOE‑certified winner. If districts are renumbered before the 2026 general, resolve based on the seat labeled “New York’s 12th Congressional District” on the official 2026 general results. Verification: NYSBOE Election Results; Ballotpedia page for convenience (official results control). (elections.ny.gov, ballotpedia.org) Background NY‑12 is a Manhattan‑based district; longtime incumbent Jerrold (Jerry) Nadler announced on September 2, 2025 that he will not seek reelection in 2026. (apnews.com, pbs.org) Early activity: Liam Elkind declared a Democratic primary challenge in July 2025; Assembly Member Micah Lasher filed to run on September 4, 2025. Other Manhattan officials (e.g., Alex Bores, Erik Bottcher, Keith Powers) have signaled interest. (amp.cnn.com, cityandstateny.com) As of mid‑2025, major ratings list NY‑12 as Safe/Solid Democratic; the general election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2026. (ballotpedia.org) Considerations New York permits fusion voting; votes across party lines aggregate to the person. Resolution is to the certified individual, not a party line. (elections.ny.gov) Certification typically occurs within ~25 days after the general election under New York law; use NYSBOE’s certification (not election‑night tallies) for resolution. (nyenr.elections.ny.gov)

24h Volume: $76.085. Liquidity: $1,300. Resolves: 11/6/2026.