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Prediction market on manifold. For decades, people have talked about the "year of the Linux desktop", with non-specific criteria but generally a subjective impression that Linux is ready for mainstream use. For years, people have talked about self-driving cars being right around the corner. This market resolves YES if reliable self-driving cars are generally available (e.g. summonable for a ride by anyone in a large-scale market such as a country or several entire states of a country, not a 1-2 city trial) before Linux reaches 10% desktop market share (by some reasonably objective metric). This market resolves NO if Linux reaches 10% desktop computer market share before reliable self-driving cars are generally available. I expect to extend this market's close date if neither condition occurs.
24h Volume: $1. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/2/2027.