Will the next person to set foot on the moon be a woman?
Prediction market on manifold. If both women and non-women take the next step at the same time, resolves to the fraction of women among them. If for some reason it is not clear whether a woman was first, resolves to the fraction of women among the crew of the mission. Update 2025-02-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Updated Resolution Criteria: Only count individuals who actually set foot on the lunar surface. Crew members who remain inside a landed vehicle and do not exit are not counted.
24h Volume: $3.245. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/1/2100.