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Prediction market on manifold. Resolves to all correct answers. Either the payload or the uppermost stage must be reported to reach orbit*. Feel free to suggest additions; I will add them, but there should be at least some question about whether or not a launch will happen in 2026 (am more happy to entertain speculation on the unlikely to launch end) *Starship near-orbits don't count
24h Volume: $200. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2026.