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Prediction market on manifold. This market resolves YES if Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 (January 1 – December 31, 2027) exceeds 2.8 million tonnes. Settlement is May 31, 2028 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2027 monthly print are well-published before resolution. Context. Emirates Global Aluminium is the largest non-China primary aluminum producer in the Middle East, with smelters at Jebel Ali and Al Taweelah (UAE). 2024 production was 2.69 Mt — a record, up modestly from 2.66 Mt in 2023. The 2.8 Mt strike for 2027 reflects modest UAE-base growth; the Century-EGA Inola JV (Oklahoma) starts contributing from 2028 onward and is not material to 2027. Resolution sources (priority order): EGA annual financial results press release https://www.ega.ae/en/ EGA media center / production milestone announcements https://media.ega.ae/ International Aluminium Institute (IAI) primary aluminum statistics https://international-aluminium.org/statistics/primary-aluminium-production/ Reuters / Bloomberg / Argus aluminum coverage for cross-validation Related markets across the cluster (calendar year 2027) Upstream supply: Indonesia primary aluminum production Indonesia alumina capacity China alumina production Guinea bauxite exports Producers (CY2027): Alcoa Century Chalco Hindalco Hongqiao Norsk Hydro Rio Tinto Rusal Vedanta Electricity hubs (CY2027): MISO Indiana Hub Nord Pool OMIE Spain Vic NEM WA SWIS Same market, other calendar year: EGA CY2028
24h Volume: $820. Liquidity: $10,000. Resolves: 5/31/2028.