Who will be the highest-rated chess player at the end of 2026?

Prediction market on manifold. Background Chess ratings are updated monthly by FIDE (International Chess Federation). As of January 2025, Magnus Carlsen has dominated the top spot for over a decade, though Gukesh Dommaraju has shown remarkable progress recently, becoming World Chess Champion and making significant rating gains in 2024. Resolution Criteria This market will resolve based on the official FIDE rating list published for January 2027 (which reflects ratings as of December 31, 2026) In case of a tie for the highest rating, all tied players will resolve equally (i.e. 50/50 if the top two are tied) If FIDE changes its rating calculation system before the end of 2026, the market will still resolve based on the official FIDE ratings under the new system If FIDE ceases to publish ratings, the market will resolve based on the most widely recognized equivalent rating system. I will not count ratings for chess variants, but may count ratings for online chess or faster chess formats if they are the most widely recognized. Considerations Historical precedent suggests rating changes at the top level tend to be gradual, but breakthrough performances in major tournaments can lead to significant rating gains Players may strategically choose their tournament schedule to protect or maximize their rating Players who are inactive for long periods of time are not added to the rating list.

24h Volume: $86. Liquidity: $1,600. Resolves: 1/2/2027.