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Prediction market on manifold. The fifth question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things The full text is: "In 2029, AI will not be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature written in natural language and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for symbolic verification." Judgment will be by me, not Gary Marcus. Ambiguous whether this means start or end of 2029, so I have set it for the end. I will accept if there is an AI that can do this for >=75% of the proofs published on the arxiv math categories in 2029.
24h Volume: $1. Liquidity: $1,160. Resolves: 1/1/2030.