SPY reaches 774 (20% gain from 645) before 516 (20% loss from 645)

Prediction market on manifold. This market resolves YES if SPY reaches a price of 774 (representing a 20% gain from 645) before it reaches a price of 516 (representing a 20% loss from 645). It resolves NO if SPY reaches 516 before reaching 774. The market will be resolved based on the daily closing price as reported on Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/) or any other major financial data provider if Yahoo Finance is unavailable. Current SPY price as of August 14, 2025: ~645 Resolution criteria: YES: SPY closes at or above 774 before ever closing at or below 516 NO: SPY closes at or below 516 before ever closing at or above 774 N/A: If neither price point is reached before the close date

24h Volume: $100. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2026.