Will a Democratic president begin demolishing Trump’s White House ballroom before 2029

Prediction market on manifold. # Will a Democratic president begin demolishing Trump’s White House ballroom by Jan. 20, 2031? This market is about the “Trump ballroom” discussed on Politix: a Trump-built or Trump-initiated ballroom / large event hall on White House grounds, associated with demolition or replacement of part of the East Wing. The underlying question is whether, if Democrats regain the presidency in 2028, the next Democratic administration will physically act to tear down the ballroom as a political/institutional repudiation, rather than merely renovate, rename, or de-Trumpify it. ## Resolution This market resolves YES if, by 11:59 PM ET on Jan. 20, 2031, a Democratic presidential administration has begun physical demolition or removal of the above-ground Trump ballroom / event-hall structure. “Demolition” means either: 1. Official records, White House / GSA / NPS documentation, court filings, construction permits, or credible public reporting describe the project as demolishing, razing, removing, or replacing the Trump ballroom; OR 2. At least 50% of the above-ground gross floor area or principal above-ground structural frame of the ballroom is removed as part of a project that eliminates or replaces the Trump-built ballroom as a ballroom / event hall. The project does not need to be fully completed by Jan. 20, 2031. It is enough if physical demolition has clearly begun by the deadline. ## What counts as YES Examples that would resolve YES: - The Democratic administration orders demolition of the Trump ballroom and physical teardown begins. - The ballroom is razed and replaced with restored East Wing space, offices, museum space, open space, or another non-ballroom use. - The ballroom is mostly torn down and rebuilt as a substantially different structure. - The above-ground ballroom is demolished while underground, utility, foundation, security, tunnel, basement, bunker, or hardened infrastructure remains. ## What counts as NO This market resolves NO if Democrats win the 2028 presidency and are inaugurated on Jan. 20, 2029, but by Jan. 20, 2031 the ballroom remains a usable ballroom / event hall and has not met the demolition standard above. Examples that would resolve NO: - The ballroom is renamed. - Trump branding is removed. - Gold leaf, decor, furnishings, or other aesthetic elements are removed. - The room is renovated, re-clad, made less gaudy, or altered to fit better aesthetically. - The ballroom is converted into a more tasteful or neutral event space while preserving the main event-hall structure. - Less than 50% of the above-ground floor area / structural frame is removed, unless credible sources describe the project as demolition or replacement of the Trump ballroom. - Bulldozers, cranes, excavators, fencing, or construction crews appear on site, but there is no clear evidence that they are being used to demolish the above-ground ballroom structure. - Only underground, secure, utility, foundation, tunnel, basement, bunker, hardened perimeter, or protective infrastructure is changed while the above-ground ballroom remains. ## Partial teardown rule If part of the ballroom is torn down to make it smaller, less ugly, more historically compatible, or better integrated with the White House complex, this resolves YES only if: - the removal crosses the 50% above-ground gross floor area / principal structural frame threshold; OR - credible sources describe the work as demolishing, razing, removing, or replacing the Trump ballroom. Otherwise, partial teardown resolves NO. ## Underground / security infrastructure rule Ignore underground or security-related infrastructure for resolution. If the above-ground ballroom is demolished but some basement, tunnel, bunker, foundation, hardened perimeter, utility, or other secure infrastructure remains, this still resolves YES. If only underground or security-related infrastructure is removed, altered, or retained while the above-ground ballroom remains usable as an event hall, this resolves NO. ## N/A conditions This market resolves N/A if: 1. No Democrat wins the 2028 presidential election and is inaugurated as president on Jan. 20, 2029. 2. The Trump ballroom is never built or never becomes substantially complete before Jan. 20, 2029. 3. The ballroom is already demolished, cancelled, abandoned, or rendered nonexistent before the next Democratic president takes office. 4. The structure is destroyed primarily by fire, attack, natural disaster, structural collapse, or another non-administration-controlled event before the Democratic administration has a meaningful chance to decide its fate. 5. The post-2028 president is an independent, third-party candidate, or unity-ticket president where it is not reasonably clear that the administration is Democratic. ## Sources for resolution Resolution should be based on credible public evidence, including but not limited to: - Official White House statements - General Services Administration records - National Park Service / National Capital Planning Commission / Commission of Fine Arts records - Congressional testimony or appropriations documents - Court filings - Construction permits or contractor records - Credible reporting from major news organizations or specialist architecture / construction outlets In ambiguous cases, the market should resolve according to the best available public evidence about whether the above-ground Trump ballroom structure is being demolished/replaced, rather than merely renovated or restyled. ## Close date Suggested close date: Nov. 8, 2028, or once the winner of the 2028 presidential election is clear. Final resolution deadline: Jan. 20, 2031.

24h Volume: $518.745. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2028.