Trump tries to serve a third term?

Prediction market on manifold. Resolution Criteria This market resolves YES if Donald Trump makes a formal attempt to serve a third term as President of the United States after having already served two terms. This includes but is the not limited to: Filing paperwork with the Federal Election Commission to run for a third term Pursuing legal challenges to the 22nd Amendment Attempting to assume the presidency through other means (such as becoming Vice President and then assuming the presidency) The market resolves NO if Trump does not make any formal attempt to serve a third term by January 20, 2033 (the end of what would be a third term if he were elected in 2028). Background The 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, ratified in 1951, explicitly states that "no person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice." Trump has previously served one term as president (2017-2021) and is currently running for a second term in the 2024 election. Trump has made comments suggesting interest in serving beyond two terms. He has floated scenarios such as running as Vice President under JD Vance and then assuming the presidency, though constitutional scholars consider these ideas legally unfeasible. Considerations Any attempt to serve a third term would face significant constitutional barriers. Overcoming these would require either a constitutional amendment (requiring approval from two-thirds of Congress and ratification by three-fourths of states) or novel legal interpretations that would likely face immediate court challenges. Update 2025-04-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Scenarios Considered as a Formal Attempt: Military Directive: Directing the military to keep him in office would qualify as a formal attempt. Vice Presidency Trick: Using a vice presidential maneuver to assume the presidency is counted. Speaker Strategy: Becoming Speaker to prompt resignations in order to take power would be treated as a formal attempt. Amendment Initiative: Significantly pushing Congress to pass an amendment to overcome the 22nd Amendment counts as a formal attempt.

24h Volume: $561. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/21/2029.