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Prediction market on manifold. In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner claims: In 2027, a leading AI lab will be able to train a GPT-4-level model in a minute. Resolves YES if by the end of 2027, a credible claim is made that: Someone trained a GPT-4-level model in a minute. or 1440 GPT-4-level models in a day, to account for parallelism GPT-4-level will be evaluated using the same benchmarks as in the GPT-4 Technical Report Table 2. I will use my best judgement if mostly the same benchmarks are reported. "A minute" and "a day" refer to wall-clock times. This is one of a series of markets on claims made in Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness report(s): @/Tossup/lasa-will-models-be-able-to-do-the @/Tossup/lasa-100b-ai-training-cluster-by-th @/Tossup/lasa-1t-ai-training-cluster-by-the @/Tossup/lasa-by-the-end-of-2027-will-anyone @/Tossup/lasa-by-the-end-of-2027-will-there @/Tossup/lasa-will-a-tech-company-buy-an-alu @/Tossup/lasa-manhattan-project-for-agi-befo @/Tossup/lasa-1gw-ai-training-run-before-202 @/Tossup/lasa-10gw-training-run-before-2029 @/Tossup/lasa-100gw-ai-training-run-before-2 Other markets about Leopold's predictions: @/ZviMowshowitz/will-we-develop-leopolds-dropin-rem
24h Volume: $100. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/1/2028.