Loading
Prediction market on manifold. Resolution: Impala Canada produces approximately 280,000 oz of PGM 2E concentrate in a typical year. This market will resolve to yes if if produces less than 100,000 oz in 2026. Resolution will occur early if a complete shutdown is announced and a restart deemed highly unlikely at the discretion of the question creator. At present the company has announced that it intends to operate through the 2026 financial year ending in July 2026, but management has also indicated that it might accelerate shutdown. The stated reason for shutdown is weakness in the palladium market. Resolution criteria Resolve YES if Impala Canada’s total production in calendar year 2026 (Jan 1–Dec 31, 2026) is under 100,000 oz of PGM in concentrate for its Lac des Iles (LDI) operation. Primary verification will be Implats’ official operating statistics for Impala Canada. Use the sum of H2 FY2026 and H1 FY2027 “Impala Canada — in concentrate” ounces that cover Jan–Dec 2026. If Implats reports only 6E (not 2E), the 6E “in concentrate” series will be used against the same 100,000 oz threshold. Sources: Implats results/operating statistics and investor materials. (implats.co.za, implats-ir.co.za) “Produced” means metal-in-concentrate recorded by Implats for Impala Canada, not sales or refined ounces. If LDI is sold, only production reported under Impala Canada in 2026 counts. If production is suspended mid‑year, we still wait for Implats’ published 2026 totals to resolve. (implats.co.za) Background Impala Canada operates the LDI palladium mine near Thunder Bay, Ontario. Implats has told workers it expects commercial production to end “around May 31, 2026,” contingent on tailings capacity and production targets, citing prolonged weak palladium prices. (tbnewswatch.com, mining.com) Recent Implats disclosures list Impala Canada at roughly 281 koz 6E in concentrate per year (typical output scale). A 100 koz cap for 2026 would imply materially curtailed operations or an early shutdown. (implats.co.za) Considerations Implats commonly reports Impala Canada production as 6E in concentrate (not “2E”). If 2E isn’t disclosed for 2026, this market will use the 6E series to ensure an objective resolution. (implats.co.za) Production vs. sales: inventory timing can shift sales/refined ounces; only “in concentrate” production attributed to Impala Canada will be counted. (implats-ir.co.za) The announced plan targets an end of production around May 31, 2026, but the exact date is conditional; actual 2026 output could vary with tailings capacity and operating performance. (tbnewswatch.com)
24h Volume: $5. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2026.