Conditional on Manifest 2026 having fox-and-hedgehog shirts, how many of 20 random attendees will know the reference?

Prediction market on manifold. Polling will be done by me, sitting down at the front gate when the conference begins, asking 20 people in sequence. "I can't remember which one is the specialist and which the generalist, but I know the reference" counts as knowing the reference, "This sounds vaguely familiar but I don't remember what they mean" does not count as knowing. Feel free to refer to the results of https://manifold.markets/etirabys/if-you-went-to-manifest-and-saw-the

24h Volume: $60. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 5/31/2026.