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Prediction market on manifold. The following to not count as leaving: Dead in the mainland Being at little islands off the coast within visual sight of mainland areas do not count as leaving. Flying over ocean <1000 miles of the mainland does not count. The following do count as leaving, so YES in NK/SK=YES in Japan=YES in Taiwan=YES etc. Flying until he's over another country's land. Flying over ocean >=1000 miles from China mainland Data/proof If he travels, there should be pictures of him outside, or, either western USA or European mainstream newspapers (wash post, economist) confidently saying that they know he is in place X or that they know he is not in mainland China. About dying, options include: Clear official PRC report + loss of power, with western agreement that this is true. If his status is unknown or rumored, and he also doesn't show his face at all for 3 consecutive months AND seems to be exerting no power (and someone else is) OR (that state pertains at end of claim AND continues beyond end to meet the 3 month deadline, then that counts as him being dead, hence, NO) Details: Leaving even once counts, but being 1 inch over a border in a plane during a thunderstorm without any awareness it happened while clearly intending reasonably to remain in PRC might not count. That is, we try to match judgements with the intentions of the forces involved. e.g. Similarly if a force of soldiers takes him in a boat and lands somewhere they fully believe is North Korea for reasonable professional reasons, and the world fully believes this too, and it's controlled at the time by NK, but then later a lawyer finds a document suggesting that actually that land is part of the PRC, I'd say he still left (because the "people who wanted to make him leave" controlled the day and won and there were no tricks.) So basically if you have lawyerly reason to think that "everyone on Xi's side and against him all think this resolves one way, but you solitary in the world think it resolves another way", but the resolution criteria have no impact on actual physical reality of life, death, power, and don't match the comeuppance or the emotional or status/power interpretations, it's just hard to resolve against conventional reality's favor since the situation is nearly identical to the other resolution having happened.
Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2026.