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Prediction market on manifold. by near-fully automated, i mean <=5 people are even plausibly making important decisions (like, everyone else could go on vacation forever and it would not slow the company down at all). frontier lab means has the best models or pretty close to the best models in 2029. right now, openai, anthropic, deepmind definitely count; xai, meta don't yet but plausibly could soonish. resolves based on the state of the world on Jan 1 2029, though it may take a while to resolve because the info may be private. resolves NA if WWIII happens. resolves as usual if a local Taiwan war happens without escalating to WWIII. resolves NO if there are no frontier AI labs anymore because the AI industry collapsed. Update 2026-05-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important decisions means anything affecting the speed at which the lab achieves AGI, including relatively 'micro' decisions (e.g. which experiments to run). A person counts as plausibly making important decisions unless there is strong evidence their decision-making adds no value over an AI model The key test: if all non-critical people went on vacation for 6 months, would AGI still be achieved at roughly the same time? Currently, thousands of people at frontier labs meet this threshold (fewer than 50% could simultaneously vacation without slowing progress) Resolution is expected to be relatively clear: either labs will look roughly like today, or the vast majority of employees will suddenly feel useless with only a handful (CEO, senior leadership, a top engineer) remaining critical
24h Volume: $15. Liquidity: $10,000. Resolves: 12/31/2028.