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Prediction market on manifold. Reform UK is a right-wing political party in the United Kingdom. Founded as the Brexit Party in 2018, its current leader is Nigel Farage, who was previously the leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP). At the 2024 UK general election, the party won 5 out of 650 constituencies in the House of Commons. This market resolves to the next permanent leader of the party, following Nigel Farage. Interim leaders do not count. This market will not resolve to Farage, even if he is replaced by an interim leader and then comes back as a permanent leader. If the party is renamed again, that still counts; if the party has multiple co-leaders rather than a single leader (like the Green Party of England and Wales), the market will resolve to PROB evenly split between them. Update 2025-03-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Merger or Party Absorption: If Reform UK merges with the Conservatives or is absorbed into them, the market will resolve to Party ceases to exist.
24h Volume: $10. Liquidity: $1,400. Resolves: 1/1/2040.