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Prediction market on manifold. Must be an attempt at invading the main island. A blockade that results in Chinese troops on the main island (eg after a Taiwanese surrender) would count. It would resolve to the date that the blockade started (even though surrender would be after this). I made a single choice market which some may prefer. (https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/when-will-china-invade-taiwan-qIyhnCZ5UE)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-mega-mar?play=true)
24h Volume: $308.131. Liquidity: $1,750. Resolves: 1/1/2050.