Federal AI preemption passes by January 3, 2027?

Prediction market on manifold. Will a federal law that preempts state-level AI regulation pass by the end of this Congress (i.e. January 3, 2027)? I intend to take a broad view on what "preemption" means. For instance: This question resolves YES if a law passes that penalizes states for passing or enforcing regulations on AI, even if it does not ban states from doing so. This question resolves YES if only some kinds of AI regulations get preempted (so long as the legislation preempts AI regulation in particular, as opposed to preempting some other class of state-level regulation that just so happens to preempt some kinds of AI regulation as well). For example, the Lummis bill has a narrow preemption clause that preempts enforcement of state laws against developers under certain narrow circumstances (see page 9, line 18 here). If the Lummis bill passes in its current form, this question will resolve YES. This question resolves YES if the preemption law also contains federal-level AI regulation. However, implicit preemption does not count toward a positive resolution. As an example, if a federal AI regulation bill is passed, it implicitly preempts state-level regulation that's in contradiction to the federal regulation (via the Supremacy Clause). This would not count. I expect edge cases to come up, so I'll try to respond to comments. Update 2025-11-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): An executive order would not count for the purposes of this market, as it is not a law.

24h Volume: $500. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/3/2027.