How low will the Marathon World Record go before the end of 2026?

Prediction market on manifold. The performance must meet the criteria to be ratified as a world record by World Athletics. Ratification can happen after the end of 2026 as long as the race itself was held before the end of 2026. This is a cumulative probability market, meaning all applicable answers will resolve YES, so e.g. if the WR stands at 1:59:15, both "Below 1:59:30" and "Below 1:59:20" will resolve YES.

24h Volume: $391.303. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2026.