Which of the following scenarios is likely to occur regarding Netanyahu’s trial?

Prediction market on manifold. Resolution Criteria: Prolonged limbo via security delays : The anticipated verdict slips past 2026 Immunity law passed (retroactive immunity) Criteria: The Knesset passes and enacts a law specifically granting immunity to Netanyahu, either prospectively or retroactively, after his trial began, with effective date allowing dismissal of his current charges. Proof needed: Text of law explicitly states immunity covering Netanyahu’s ongoing indictments. Signed by President, not simply proposed or debated. Not immediately struck down by Supreme Court Attorney General is removed, sidelined, or resigns Criteria for “Yes” outcome: Official end to Gali Baharav-Miara’s tenure in any of the following ways: Formal dismissal by the ministerial committee and cabinet, with or without High Court review. Voluntary resignation from office — even without formal firing. Legislative or judicial changes that strip her of functional authority (i.e., she remains in title only, unable to exercise duties). Proof required: Public announcement or official record confirming TBD: She resigned, or Committee and cabinet voted to dismiss her (even provisionally), or The High Court ruled that the dismissal process is lawful, or New legislation/or judicial ruling strips her powers. Major charges dropped via plea deal or prosecution retreat Criteria: The prosecution and Netanyahu reach a publicly declared plea agreement or the AG formally withdraws key charges (especially in Case 4000 or equivalent bribery/fraud counts). Proof needed: Official filing confirming plea deal or dropped charges. Netanyahu pleads guilty to lesser count(s) or admits to modified charges. Court approves amended indictment or dismissal Trial canceled due to Trump pressure. A credible media consensus (from at least 3 reputable international or Israeli outlets) reports that Trump’s or U.S. diplomatic pressure was a significant contributing factor to the decision. This can include claims that: Trump-linked pressure created political risk to proceed with the trial; U.S. threats (e.g. military aid leverage, diplomatic fallout) were considered; Israeli officials acted in a way consistent with aligning judicial outcomes to U.S. preferences. The trial runs its course and he is convicted (of at least one major charge) Criteria: A final court verdict convicts Netanyahu of bribery, fraud, or breach of trust in any of the three cases (1000, 2000, or 4000). Lesser offenses (like technical violations) don’t count unless tied to the main corruption charges. Proof: Public release of the court’s verdict. Media consensus reporting conviction. The trial runs its course and he is fully acquitted Criteria: Court rules not guilty on all major charges (in all active cases). Includes dismissal due to lack of evidence, not due to technicality alone. Proof: Official court ruling. Confirmed by multiple mainstream media outlets (Haaretz, Times of Israel, etc.). Update 2026-04-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Multiple answers can resolve Yes — the answer options are independent of each other, and more than one can resolve true simultaneously.

24h Volume: $100. Liquidity: $1,200. Resolves: 12/31/2026.