Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service in California by the end of 2026?

Prediction market on manifold. Will it be possible for a non Tesla employee to ride in a fully autonomous Tesla vehicle in California by the end of 2026? Has to be a paid service that non Tesla employees can use. Has to be in a car not owned or leased by the rider. Has to be a point to point ride of at least 1 mile. Has to be on public roads in a city. Hailing app could be third-party, but car guidance/self-driving must be handled by Tesla. Boring company tunnels don’t count. Update 2025-03-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Safety Driver Clarification: Rides that involve a safety driver in the vehicle will not count as fully autonomous. Only rides with no human intervention in control (i.e., without a safety driver) will meet the criteria for a valid Robo-Taxi service. Update 2025-07-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the resolution criteria with the following points: A service with a waitlist or that is invite-only will count, as long as riders are not Tesla employees. To be considered "offering the service," there must be a significant scale of operation. The creator has proposed a threshold of 50,000 rides per week in California. A single ride or token presence will not be sufficient. Update 2025-07-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has reinforced the resolution criteria regarding the scale of the service: To resolve to YES, the service must be operating at a scale of at least 50,000 rides per week in California. This threshold is being held firm and is benchmarked against Waymo's public launch figures in San Francisco. Update 2025-07-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has revised the scale required for the service to count for a YES resolution, based on a user's suggestion to use Waymo's earlier launch numbers as a benchmark. The previously established threshold of 50,000 rides per week has been lowered. The new proposed threshold is approximately 15,000 rides per week, based on Waymo's figures from September 2023. Update 2025-08-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Safety passenger setup will not qualify: A Tesla robo-taxi service that operates with a "safety passenger" in the vehicle will not resolve this market to YES, as it does not meet the fully autonomous criteria.

24h Volume: $1,427.252. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/1/2027.