Will GPT-image-2 's LMArena score drop meaningfully, 1 month after release?

Prediction market on manifold. [tweet]Current score is 1512. If the gpt-image-2 (medium) score on lmarena is below 1490 Elo (arbitrary threshold set by me), on May 21st, in the text-to-image arena leaderboard, this market resolves YES

24h Volume: $1,001. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 5/21/2026.