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Prediction market on manifold. Will resolve after the next German federal election (scheduled for no later than March 2029, unless early elections are called). Resolves to the option representing the minimum number of mainstream parties needed to form a majority coalition (>50% of Bundestag seats). Examples: - After the election in early 2025, the market would have resolved to "2 parties" because a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition was possible. - If there were an election held today that matched current polling (September 2025), the market would resolve to "3 parties" because a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition would not be possible, but a CDU/CSU-SPD-Greens coalition would. Definition of "mainstream" Parties: Included as "mainstream": CDU/CSU, FDP, SPD, Greens Not included as "mainstream": AfD, BSW, Die Linke (Left Party) Other parties will be classified based on their policy positions relative to this spectrum
24h Volume: $250. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 3/22/2029.