will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?

Prediction market on manifold. I'd like a concrete list of "frontier labs", but don't want to exclude newcomers. I'll write a list below, but if there are labs that aren't on the list but plausibly could be considered frontier, I'll make a manifold poll and rule based on the markets decision. Also please comment if you think I've missed one: OpenAI Anthropic Meta Amazon DeepMind/Google DeepSeek Alibaba (NOTE: this used to say Qwen, but Qwen is the name of the model, not the lab) Mistral XAI (Elon musk lab) Nvidia Update 2025-02-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Preprints Included: Preprints (e.g., arXiv) count as a valid form of releasing a paper. The focus is on whether the big labs deem that an AI significantly contributed to the paper, rather than on traditional journal criteria. Update 2026-05-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Many venues, including arXiv, explicitly ban AIs from being listed as authors. This is a relevant factor traders should be aware of when assessing the likelihood of resolution.

24h Volume: $50. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2030.