What will happen before 2050? (Mega market)

Prediction market on manifold. Feel free to add answers! If you don't want to add an answer because of the cost, suggest an answer in the comments and I'll tip you 5 mana/trader on your question (max 100M). If you add a question yourself, comment and I'll tip you the unique trader bonuses that I get from it. If a question can't be resolved objectively, it will be resolved according to a poll. Update 2025-26-01 (PST): - 2024 is the first calendar year that has reached more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level. (AI summary of creator comment)

24h Volume: $27.706. Liquidity: $10,000. Resolves: 1/1/2050.