Will Kemi Badenoch face a Vote of No Confidence before 1st January 2027?

Prediction market on manifold. Resolves YES if at any date before the 1st of January 2027, the 1922 Committee of the Conservative Party announce that the threshold of letters of no confidence (currently 33% of all Conservative MPs - 41 MPs as at date of creation) has been met, a Vote of No Confidence is scheduled, and takes place before the close date. If a VoNC does not happen, or a vote is triggered but does not take place before 1st Jan 2027, this resolves NO. According to current party rules, no VoNC can take place before the party leader has been in place for a full year, meaning a VoNC cannot take place before November 2025, so this covers a period of a little over a year after VoNC season starts. Clarification: if the party rules are amended to allow a VoNC then this will count for a YES resolution. The key part is the vote occurring, not any rule changes to enable it.

24h Volume: $34.26. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2026.