Russian attacks or invades Finland by mid 2026

Prediction market on manifold. Credible sources, battles or clear Russian troops on the other side of the border. Or, bombs them, or does drone strikes. Or other kinetic attacks. Threats leading to concessions of territory or political union would not count because it's too hard to evaluate. There has to be at least a shot fired.

24h Volume: $350. Liquidity: $1,005. Resolves: 7/1/2026.