Will the next IPC Sudan acute food insecurity analysis classify at least one area in Famine (IPC Phase 5)?

Prediction market on metaculus. The [Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC)](https://www.ipcinfo.org/) classifies acute food insecurity on a scale from Phase 1 (Minimal) to Phase 5. At household level, Phase 5 is "Catastrophe"; an entire **area** is classified in Phase 5 ("Famine") only when extreme food deprivation is accompanied by threshold levels of acute malnutrition and mortality. The IPC separately flags areas "at risk of Famine" — a worst-case projection that, in IPC's own words, "is not a new classification" and is distinct from a Famine classification. Because of access and data constraints, recent IPC Sudan products are IPC Global Initiative **Special Snapshots**. The most recent product — the Special Snapshot covering February 2026 – January 2027, **published 14 May 2026** — found nearly 19.5 million people (41%) in IPC Phase 3 or above, with around 135,000 in Phase 5 (Catastrophe) at household level. Crucially, **no area is currently classified in Famine (IPC Phase 5)**: El Fasher town and Kadugli town, previously classified in Famine, saw relative improvements as Famine-affected populations relocated to areas with better access. A risk of Famine (worst-case, not a classification) was identified in 14 areas for the June–September 2026 lean season. Acute-malnutrition Famine thresholds have already been surpassed in Um Baru, Kernoi and parts of At Tina (North Darfur), but these areas are **not classified in Famine because insecurity and data gaps prevent the full food + malnutrition + mortality evidence a classification requires**. The Famine Review Committee assessed the risk of deterioration in the coming months as high, with conflict expected to intensify in Greater Kordofan and North Darfur. This question therefore turns on two things together: whether conditions deteriorate into Famine, **and** whether IPC can obtain enough data to formally classify it — an unclassified famine being a live possibility in Sudan's worst-access areas. Reasonable forecasters disagree on both. In resolution terms: this is settled by the **next two qualifying IPC Sudan products** (a full IPC analysis, an IPC Global Initiative Special Snapshot, or an IPC Alert) whose classification covers the **June–September 2026 lean season or later**. It resolves **YES** if either of those two products classifies at least one area in Famine (IPC Phase 5) — a formal *projected* Famine classification counts; a flag of "at risk of Famine" does not — and **NO** if neither does. See the resolution criteria for the full mechanic. **References** - [IPC Sudan country analysis](https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/details-map/en/c/1159787/) - [IPC Sudan Acute Food Insecurity Special Snapshot, February 2026 – January 2027 (published 14 May 2026)](https://www.ipcinfo.org/fileadmin/user_upload/ipcinfo/docs/IPC_Sudan_Acute_Food_Insecurity_Feb2026_Jan2027_Special_Snapshot.pdf)

Resolves: 1/2/2027.