To which political party will Johannesburg's next mayor belong?

Prediction market on manifold. Resolution criteria This market will resolve to the political party of the individual who is officially elected as the Executive Mayor of the City of Johannesburg Metropolitan Municipality by the City Council. The market will resolve once a mayoral candidate receives a majority of the valid votes cast by the 270-member City of Johannesburg Council. Official announcements from the City of Johannesburg Metropolitan Municipality (https://www.joburg.org.za) or reputable South African news outlets (such as SABC News, Daily Maverick, or News24) covering the council proceedings will be used to verify the outcome. In the event of a coalition where the mayor is formally associated with one primary party, that party will be considered the winner. If the mayoral position is vacant or if a new mayoral election is called, the market will resolve based on the result of that subsequent election. Background In South Africa’s municipal system, voters do not directly elect the mayor. Instead, citizens vote for ward councillors and party lists, and the 270 members of the City of Johannesburg Council subsequently elect a mayor from among their own ranks. Because no single party has consistently held an outright majority of the 136 seats required to govern, Johannesburg has experienced frequent shifts in leadership and relies on complex coalition agreements. The mayor's tenure is subject to the stability of these coalitions, as demonstrated by numerous motions of no confidence and changes in leadership since the 2021 municipal elections.

24h Volume: $1,214. Liquidity: $1,200. Resolves: 5/18/2027.