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Prediction market on manifold. (@JoelBecker and I put a handshake bet on this at 2%, my $10 to his $490) Update 2025-03-09: Dropping the conditional "If Elected" from the title, as Trump won election. Update 2025-03-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update: The market will resolve after Trump's current term ends The market will resolve if a pardon occurs Resolution happens at the earliest of the above events Update 2025-03-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Commutation Resolution Proposal: In the event of a commutation (instead of a full pardon), the market will resolve based on the percentage reduction of the original sentence. The calculation is based on the reduction: for example, if the original sentence is 25 years and it is commuted to 10 years, that represents a 15-year reduction, so the market would resolve at 60% (15/25). This rule applies only if a commutation occurs and is in addition to the resolution events already described.
24h Volume: $225.422. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/1/2029.