8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Prediction market on manifold. All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2026". For the 2025 predictions you can find them here, and their resolution here. You can find all the markets under the tag [2026 Forbes AI predictions]. Note that I will resolve to whatever Forbes/Rob Toews say in their resolution article for 2026's predictions, even if I or others disagree with his decision. I might bet in this market, as I have no power over the resolution. ❗ Full title: 8. AI will be one of the central issues in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections. The politics will get complex, especially when it comes to AI-driven job loss. Description of this prediction from the article: In 2026, especially as we get further into the year, the news cycle in the United States will be dominated by the midterm elections. And these midterm elections will be dominated by the topic of artificial intelligence. The stakes are high in these midterms, which will be seen as a definitive barometer of the country’s support for President Trump’s polarizing presidency. The topic of AI is everywhere in politics these days. The Trump administration just announced the "Genesis Mission," a comprehensive government effort to advance the U.S.’ AI industry that has been styled as a modern Manhattan Project. AI is now deeply intertwined with many policy areas, from energy to national security to manufacturing to employment. The political calculus around AI is fascinating and nuanced — and we may see it change as the year goes on. A logical way to analyze the politics of AI would be as follows: Republicans are generally champions of private industry and favor less government regulation. They should therefore celebrate the rapid advancement of the AI industry and support a hands-off regulatory approach. Republicans are also particularly focused on national security, and as AI becomes a key factor in the global competition with China, this is all the more reason for them to support AI’s rapid and unfettered development domestically. Democrats, on the other hand, are more concerned with potential negative societal impacts of commercial and technological activity and more focused on promoting the fair distribution of economic gains. They should therefore be more ambivalent toward the advance of AI and more willing to pass laws to regulate and moderate its progress. To this point, President Trump and his administration have largely adhered to the logic laid out above. The Trump administration has been a proactive champion of AI development and has staunchly opposed any sort of AI regulation. A number of prominent Silicon Valley figures with technolibertarian leanings, including many from the Peter Thiel and Marc Andreessen orbits, are in positions of power in Trump’s administration and are actively promoting a tech-friendly agenda. But as 2026 unfolds, the single biggest AI-related political issue will become the technology’s impact on jobs. And jobs are a unique and delicate political topic. AI-driven job loss, long discussed as a theoretical possibility, is rapidly becoming a present-day reality. Graduating college students are suddenly finding it difficult to get jobs because entry-level roles can increasingly be carried out by AI. Companies across sectors laid off tens of thousands of workers this year as a direct result of AI. And this is just the tip of the iceberg. According to an MIT study released last month, AI can now replace 11.7% of the U.S. workforce, representing over $1 trillion in wages. This tension is about to spill out into the mainstream political narrative in a big way. Broad swaths of voters are going to start feeling angry and threatened about AI jeopardizing their livelihoods and those of their families, friends and communities. The fact that this technology is mostly developed and owned by a few big wealthy companies in California will only add fuel to this fire. Being on the wrong side of a job loss narrative is one of the cardinal sins of U.S. politics. And President Trump, though he was elected as a member of the Republican Party, has a serious populist streak in him. Trump will increasingly find himself compelled to side with, and to speak out in favor of protecting the jobs of, everyday working Americans against the encroachment of AI. This will complicate his and the Republican party’s full-throated support of the technology and will muddy the waters in terms of their narrative around AI. While President Trump himself is not up for election in 2026, many Republicans “down the ticket” seeking election as governors, senators, congresspeople and more follow in the president’s wake and take cues from him on policy issues. Heading into the midterms, the Republican party will find itself navigating increasingly complex terrain when it comes to AI. For their part, Democratic candidates will find it natural to advocate for policies that rein in AI’s deployment in order to mitigate AI-driven job loss. But Democrats, too, will face a complex balancing act. They cannot come out too unequivocally against the technology and risk being painted as blindly anti-innovation, anti-economic growth and/or insufficiently focused on national security considerations and the competition with China. Another policy issue that will present a tricky juggling act for many Democrat candidates: balancing their commitment to combat climate change with the pressure to unlock more domestic energy capacity for AI development, including from fossil fuel sources like natural gas. One way or the other, watching a bunch of not-always-well-informed politicians debate and opine about AI will make for plenty of entertaining moments in the 2026 elections.

24h Volume: $56.389. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2026.