If Iran's regime falls in 2026, will it be a surprise?

Prediction market on manifold. -Resolves N/A if Iran's regime does NOT fall in 2026. -Resolves Yes if Iran's regime falls, and during the previous day (ET timezone) the highest price for the market below is <= 50%. -Otherwise resolves No. (https://manifold.markets/embed/SaviorofPlant/will-irans-regime-fall-in-2026)

24h Volume: $418.726. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2026.