Will there be a massive catastrophe caused by AI before 2030?

Prediction market on manifold. By “massive catastrophe”, I mean any disaster that has caused at least 1,000,000 deaths or US$100 billion in damage directly attributable to AI, for example a pandemic virus engineered with the help of AI, or a cyberattack taking down some electrical grid. Update 2026-05-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The catastrophe must be a single discrete incident, not a series of related actions or impacts. A series of AI-driven attacks that collectively exceed the damage threshold would not qualify.

24h Volume: $1. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/1/2030.