Will ANY of the three major “AI 2027” predictions come true?

Prediction market on manifold. Three prongs: 1) China agreeing to AI pause or 2) open AI having $3T revenue or 3) open AI having 80% of global compute by eoy 2028 Inspired by my offer to @ScottAlexander on Twitter https://x.com/abcampbell/status/1909178653050880152 Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about the first resolution criterion, the creator has indicated that 'China agreeing to AI pause' is a reference to a specific narrative or context called 'the deal'. Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the first criterion, the market will resolve to YES if China agrees to a deal or slowdown, even if it is not enforced. Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the criteria for $3T revenue and 80% of global compute, the creator has clarified that these apply exclusively to OpenAI. Other entities, such as Google, will not be considered.

24h Volume: $10. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2028.