Iran charges "Strait of Hormuz fees" on June 1?

Prediction market on manifold. This is a tricky topic to define & subjective judgment is required—I will not try to fully define legally precise criteria. Trade with caution (I won't trade on this market). Context from Reuters. Part of Iran's peace proposal is a "Strait of Hormuz fee" that ships need to pay them to pass through the strait. This market resolves YES if any ships that passed through the strait on June 1 might need to pay this fee. A few details: It does not matter whether the a specific ship actually passes through the strait on June 1, what matters is what one would reasonably expect if a ship did pass through it on that date. It still counts even if many ships are exempted from the fee. It does not count if the exemptions are so broad that the fee has no practical impact. (As a basic test, I will consider: "did the existence of this fee impact whether ships passed through the strait"—if no one paid it AND its existence had no impact, then it doesn't count). I will look for the mainstream media consensus on whether ships are actually paying it—if technically there's a fee but there's no meaningful enforcement, then that doesn't count. The fee needs to be meaningfully large—let's say >$10,000 per ship. The fee needs to be paid to "Iran" in some broad sense. What matters is the status of the strait on June 1—if fees were paid a month before but then the policy changes, that doesn't count.

24h Volume: $70. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 5/31/2026.