When will Starship successfully land for the first time?

Prediction market on manifold. Resolves YES for all time ranges before which there is a flight in which Starship and its booster both successfully land. Update 2025-03-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator Primary source: The result will resolve based on a consensus of news media reports. Secondary source: If there is no news media consensus, the resolution will follow SpaceX's statement. Fallback: In the absence of a clear statement from SpaceX, the resolution will be based on a personal assessment: whether both the booster and Starship appear to have landed and remain undamaged. Update 2025-03-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Landing Site Clarification: Planets/Moons: A landing on a planet or moon is counted as successful. Space Stations: Landings on space stations do not count.

24h Volume: $10. Liquidity: $1,100. Resolves: 1/1/2028.