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Prediction market on manifold. Currently, ASML is “the sole supplier in the world of extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) photolithography machines that are required to manufacture the most advanced chips” (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASML_Holding). Resolution criteria: Question resolves “no” if, by the end of 2026, it has been credibly reported that at least one non-ASML supplier has manufactured their own EUV machines and that these machines have been successfully employed in commercial chip production. The question resolves “yes” otherwise. If I think the criteria for resolving “no” might be ambiguous or controversial, the question will only resolve “no” if, for one continuous week before the end of 2026, the ASML Wikipedia article no longer claims that the company is the world’s sole EUV supplier. See also: (https://manifold.markets/embed/JaromGordon/by-2027-will-asml-still-be-the-worl)
24h Volume: $53. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/1/2027.