Products

Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?

Prediction market on manifold. It's easy to envision one or two purely-AI-written books, given good marketing, making it onto the NYT fiction bestseller list in the capacity as novelties. Therefore, if we want to gauge proliferation of well-written AI-written fiction capable of appealing to audiences not primarily seeking novelty, we want to check for a larger count. I have, for this market's purposes, arbitrarily chosen a target of 5. So. Do we expect at least five purely-AI-written books to make it onto the NYT fiction bestseller list before the end of 2030? (This could, of course, be confounded by e.g. the NYT establishing a policy of not putting AI-written novels onto the list even if they're selling well. If there exist better benchmarks for the same phenomenon, I encourage others to make similar markets resolving against those better benchmarks and link them in the comments here.) 'purely-AI-written' here means books whose text is generated and, if applicable, edited by AI with little to no human involvement, with—let's say, as a theoretical concrete benchmark, although it'd be hard to check most of the time in practice—less than 1% of the final word-count consisting of text either written or edited-into-its-current-form by a human. I don't actively monitor the NYT bestseller list or its contents, and so I will rely on market-participants to bring news of any relevant novels should they be released. I will, after market closing time, do a bit of research myself in case any relevant books showed up on the list without comment, prior to resolving one way or the other.

24h Volume: $56.359. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/1/2031.

BLOCKCIRCLE/ONE TERMINAL/150+ VENUES/6 ASSET CLASSES/NON-CUSTODIAL

Sourced. Scored. Routed.

Blockcircle

Quantitative tools and real-time data for crypto and macro markets. Scorecards, trade signals, and research in one platform.

Trade
Whale AlphaPrediction AlphaPolitical AlphaInsider AlphaTrade Alpha
Discover
Momentum Trading EngineAsset Outperformer EngineMarket Reversal EngineAlpha Hunter SuiteMarket Analysis
Scorecards
Global Liquidity ScorecardMacroeconomic Risk ScorecardAltcoin Market Scorecard
Resources
Pulse DashboardEcosystem StatsTrending MarketsUser GuidesInvestment LabsTrading CourseOpen SourceBlog and News
Company
About UsPricingInstitutionalContactTerms & ConditionsPrivacy Policy
© 2026 Blockcircle. All rights reserved.
BUILT FOR THE TRADER·GLOBAL · MULTI-ASSET