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Prediction market on manifold. Resolution criteria This market resolves YES if Bitcoin's price falls below $30,000 before reaching a new all-time high above $126,210.50 (the previous all-time high reached on October 6, 2025). Resolution is based on the daily closing price on major exchanges (Coinbase, Kraken, or Binance). If Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high before dropping below $30,000, the market resolves NO. Background Bitcoin is currently trading around $95,084, approximately 25% below its recent all-time high. Bitcoin previously reached above $122,000 in July 2025 before declining. Analyst forecasts for 2026 are divided: Bernstein and Standard Chartered predict Bitcoin will reach $150,000, while Fidelity expects support between $65,000-$75,000, and Fundstrat suggests prices could fall as low as $60,000. Considerations Some major institutions believe Bitcoin has broken its traditional four-year cycle and will reach new all-time highs, while others like Morgan Stanley and Fidelity believe the bull market has concluded. Analysts expect Bitcoin to remain in a high-volatility range between $75,000 and $150,000 in 2026. A drop to $30,000 would represent a 68% decline from current levels and would be historically significant, as Bitcoin has not traded at that level since 2021. This description was generated by AI.
24h Volume: $32.046. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2026.