Will Iran get substantial sanctions relief AND tolls on ships in exchange for reopening Hormuz?

Prediction market on manifold. Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, 1 month after the Strait of Hormuz is opened to typical amounts of traffic (>50% of traffic prior to the closure), there is a public agreement between Iran and the relevant international parties (e.g., the U.S. or a UN-backed coalition) that explicitly includes both of the following conditions: Substantial sanctions relief: A verifiable, significant easing of economic sanctions currently imposed on Iran by major international powers (not merely minor exemptions or renewals). Tolls on ships: The formal establishment of a mechanism allowing Iran to legally levy tolls or fees on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The market resolves to NO if no such agreement is reached by the date specified, or if an agreement is reached that does not include both provisions. Official government press releases, international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, AP, Bloomberg), and verified transcripts of diplomatic agreements will be used to determine the outcome. This description was generated by AI.

24h Volume: $29.341. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 4/5/2027.