Will the Senate of the Philippines remove Vice President Sara Duterte from office before September 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. On May 11, 2026, the House of Representatives in the Philippines [voted 257-25 to impeach](https://apnews.com/article/philippines-vice-president-duterte-impeachment-5d619c24ae6ef880d3c03bbcdccc1536) Vice President Sara Duterte over "alleged unexplained wealth and threats against the president, as the rift between the camps of the country’s top two officials escalated." There were nine abstentions.  > Shortly before the impeachment vote in the House, Senate President Vicente Sotto III, who had vowed to immediately put the vice president to trial, was ousted by 13 of 24 senators, including supporters of the vice president and her father, former President Rodrigo Duterte. >   > It’s not immediately clear how the vice president’s impending impeachment trial would be affected by the Senate leadership change, but Sotto told reporters that he and his allies would insist that the proceedings against the vice president should be immediately taken up once submitted. This impeachment has [a long history](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqlp21q4yq4o): > The case against the vice-president stemmed from her alleged misuse of public funds and public threats against \[President Ferdinand] Marcos, his wife and his cousin, the former House speaker. >   > Duterte was impeached on the same grounds in 2025, but the Supreme Court blocked it on a technicality before the Senate trial could start. >   > The case was revived this year. Last week, a House committee that looked into the evidence against the vice-president ruled that there was sufficient grounds to impeach her. The impeachment process and its use in the Philippines has had mixed results in [recent history](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_in_the_Philippines).

Resolves: 9/1/2026.