Will a new High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina officially be in place before September 2, 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. The High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, together with the Office of the High Representative (OHR) in Bosnia and Herzegovina, was created in 1995 immediately after the signing of the [Dayton Agreement](https://www.ohr.int/dayton-peace-agreement/ "Dayton Agreement") ([Annex 10](https://www.ohr.int/dayton-peace-agreement/annex-10/)), which ended the 1992-1995 [Bosnian War](https://www.britannica.com/event/Bosnian-War "Bosnian War"). The purpose of the High Representative and the OHR is to oversee the civilian implementation of the Dayton Agreement. The High Representative is appointed by and serves to represent the countries of the [Peace Implementation Council](https://www.ohr.int/international-community-in-bih/peace-implementation-council/) (PIC). On May 11, 2026, after nearly five years as High Representative, Christian Schmidt decided to [conclude his service](https://www.ohr.int/christian-schmidt-concludes-his-mandate-as-high-representative-for-bosnia-and-herzegovina/): he "informed the PIC Steering Board of his decision and requested that they begin the work of finding his successor." In the lead-up to this decision, Schmidt had [repeatedly clashed](https://apnews.com/article/bosnia-international-envoy-resigns-serbs-a67c7c974cd1642a36831efba66929ba) with Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik. Additionally, Schmidt, who had [never been approved by Russia](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg5pvj5pg51o) (a member of the PIC Steering Board, though it has not participated since July 2021), had apparently lost the support of the United States as well.  Schmidt says he will [remain in office until a successor is selected](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg5pvj5pg51o). Meanwhile, Russia has repeatedly supported Dodik's calls for OHR to be closed altogether.

Resolves: 9/2/2026.