2026 Midterms Election Weirdness

Prediction market on manifold. This is intended to capture whether any of the weird edge cases surround the election and seating of the next Congress come to pass, especially focused on things that might cause other markets to resolve in unexpected or apparently contradictory ways. These scenarios cover Congressional elections only; State or local elections are not included. Details where they might be needed: The start of the term is Noon on Jan 3rd, 2027. The first day is the actual first day -- Jan 3rd, or later if so decided by law. Major news organizations: AP, CNN, Fox, ABC, CBS, NBC. Member seated who was not the winner: as of the final call by news networks before the end of day Jan 2nd. If a news org retracts a call and the new call matches who is eventually seated, that is NOT enough to trigger this. Majority control discrepancy: Any of the following don't match: Major news organiziation call of majority control Final projection of control (including announced caucus intentions) based on certified results as of EOD Dec 31st Organizing resolution definition of the majority party Bonus underlying chaos: two or more events happen that would have each independently triggered the same question. For example, two vacant Senate seats. Market chaos: two markets that should resolve in response to the election and start of session of the new Congress, that resolve in apparent contradiction, as a result of a technicality. Includes both technicalities listed above and any unknown unknowns. Bonus market chaos: more than one such pair, with no market in common. (Three markets on the "same" event that split 2-1 is not enough to trigger this; a 2-2 split would.) None of these will resolve N/A. I might trade in this market; if it ends up a mess and I have conflicts of interest I will request mod team assistance. This market is inherently about edge cases; pedantic questions and help with the details are very welcome. Complaints about edge cases after they arise on the market about edge cases will be looked at with extreme levels of "I warned you". Bring up questions early. One goal of this market is "an arb bot could use this to hedge weird stuff"; suggestions to make that more viable are quite welcome. Update 2025-07-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated that a scenario such as the US federal government announcing a delay to the 2026 midterm elections would be considered a relevant 'weird edge case' for this market's resolution. Update 2025-07-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the 'Market chaos' and 'Bonus market chaos' criteria to be met, only markets that were created before election day will be considered.

24h Volume: $355.274. Liquidity: $1,900. Resolves: 1/4/2027.